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December 15, 2016

Looking at What's Ahead in a Trump Administration

This article originally ran in the December 2017 issue of AVN magazine. Click here for a link to the digital edition. “I love the uneducated,” proclaimed Donald Trump. And you now can see why. Trump persuaded the Rust Belt that the mills would all reopen, which alone was enough to carry the day in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Michigan and the election as a result; he persuaded an element of the electorate that he would deliver all kinds of expensive things while lowering taxes to the point that they overlooked what it would do to the deficit. That was it. The usual Republican/Democrat split was what it was—abortion, labor, etc. Now what? First, the Supreme Court will return to what it was, at least for now. The vacant spot created by Justice Scalia’s death will be replaced by someone who certainly will be like-minded. But you’d better hope that Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, Ginsburg and Kennedy hang in there for four more years. And that is especially true for the latter two because Justice Kennedy is 80 and Justice Ginsburg is 83. A flip of either of those to a Trump nominee that would be rubber stamped by the Senate could spell disaster. A flip of two of them would almost certainly doom Roe v. Wade for starters. “Bar room” exotic dancing likely would lose First Amendment protection. And remember Justice Scalia’s question to the government lawyers in United States v. Playboy, wondering how the subject R-rated movies possibly could be protected by the First Amendment? Put three more Scalia-types on the court and who knows what would happen to this industry. And along those lines, remember that every Republican administration since Reagan’s second term has put an emphasis on obscenity prosecution. The only exception to that was Bush 43: Attorney General John Ashcroft’s anti-porn efforts were sidetracked for a few years because of 9/11. That’s four years. If, as has happened in most instances in recent years (all except Carter and Bush 41), a president who runs for reelection wins, then that would be eight years. However, Trump is sure to fall far short of delivering his promises and therefore likely will be ousted by a Democrat in 2020. One reason that may happen is the inevitable clash between Trump and the Tea Party, which remains a force. If The Donald attempts to deliver what he is promising, the Tea Party will fight it. What he has promised would cost a ton of money; and the Tea Party is not going stand for either higher taxes or a higher deficit. Also, there is Obamacare. There is no way Congress can come up with an acceptable alternative so long as the cost of medical services and pharmaceuticals remains so high. And education will not be solved. There is no way that in four years the existing system of education, where starving students generate huge loans to pay wealthy professors to write books and articles, is likely to change. Most of all, the mills in the Rust Belt are not going to re-open—none of them. That alone will turn the election results around. The above factors well could be in play in two years when Congress is up in the off-year election. Historically, in off-year elections, the party in power loses seats in Congress. So, Trump may only have a free ride for two years. This was a close election. Real close. In fact, as this goes to press, Secretary Clinton won the popular vote; the second time in recent years a candidate has lost in the electoral college while winning the popular vote—the first being Bush v. Gore. This is a bitterly divided country and increasingly so. Fasten your seat belts! Clyde DeWitt is a Las Vegas and Los Angeles attorney, whose practice has been focused on adult entertainment since 1980. He can be reached at [email protected]/* */ More information can be found at ClydeDeWitt.com. This column is not a substitute for personal legal advice. Rather, it is to alert readers to legal issues warranting advice from your personal attorney.

 
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